Resilient foundations and evolving opportunities

New Zealand’s trade relationship with China continues to demonstrate both resilience and strategic importance, with China remaining New Zealand’s largest trading partner, largest goods export market, and largest overall export market according to the latest NZTE Trade Insights report for the year ending December 2025 .

Two-way trade reached ≈NZD $41 billion in 2025, with New Zealand exports totalling ≈NZD $23 billion and imports at ≈NZD $18 billion, reinforcing China’s central role in New Zealand’s international commerce.

NZCTA Chairman John Cochrane said the figures highlight both the depth of the relationship and the opportunity ahead.

“China remains absolutely core to New Zealand’s trade future. What we are seeing is not just scale, but diversification – across food, consumer goods, and increasingly sophisticated value-added products. That speaks directly to NZCTA’s mission of helping businesses build sustainable, trusted commercial relationships in China.”

Food and beverage remains the anchor for exports

 Food and beverage exports continue to underpin the relationship, reaching ≈NZD $15 billion in 2025 – up more than 16% year-on-year – making China New Zealand’s number one F&B export partner with a 28% share of total exports . 

Dairy remained the dominant sector, rising to nearly NZD $10 billion, supported by strong growth in butter, cheese, infant formula, and liquid milk products . Fruit exports also grew almost 38% to NZD $1.6 billion, driven primarily by kiwifruit and apples, reflecting ongoing demand for premium, safe, and trusted fresh produce .  At the same time, beverage exports grew more than 36% to NZD $120 million, with strong momentum in wine and bottled water, signalling expanding consumer interest in premium imported lifestyle products .

Mixed performance across other sectors 

Outside food and beverage, forestry continued to perform strongly, increasing over 10% to NZD $3.4 billion, largely driven by log exports and wood pulp growth . Conversely, some sectors faced headwinds, including pet food and chemical exports, reflecting price pressures, regulatory shifts, and changing market dynamics across China’s import landscape .

NZCTA Executive Director Jeff Shepherd noted the importance of understanding these shifts.

“China’s market is not static. We’re seeing clear growth in premium food, health-related products, and lifestyle categories, while other areas are undergoing consolidation and pricing pressure. For New Zealand companies, success increasingly comes from value creation, strong in-market partnerships, and long-term brand building – not just volume.”

Looking ahead

China’s 2026 outlook signals moderated but stable GDP growth (~4.6% forecast), continued policy support for consumption upgrading with discipline, food security and supply chain resilience, health and ageing demographics, and technology-enabled distribution.  Digital channels, social commerce, and data-driven marketing are now baseline expectations. Companies that invest in localised digital capability will capture disproportionate gains.

For NZCTA members, the message is clear: while the fundamentals of the trade relationship remain strong, opportunity lies in moving further up the value chain, strengthening trust, and adapting to evolving consumer expectations.

As Cochrane concluded:

 “The New Zealand–China trade story is entering a more sophisticated phase. Those who invest in relationships, quality, compliance, and brand will be best positioned to thrive in the next decade.”