China's Beef Import Quotas Present Opportunity for New Zealand Exporters

China introduced new beef import quotas effective 1 January 2026 following a safeguard investigation into rising imports, with allocations reflecting each country's historical market share and positioning New Zealand favorably among major beef exporting nations.​

Under the new three-year quota system, Brazil—China's largest beef supplier—received the highest allocation at 1.106 million tonnes for 2026, followed by Argentina with 506,000-511,000 tonnes, and Uruguay with 324,000 tonnes. New Zealand has been allocated an annual duty-free quota of 206,000 tonnes, rising to 214,000 tonnes, comparable to Australia's 200,000-205,000 tonnes and notably higher than the United States' 164,000 tonnes. Any imports exceeding these quotas will face an additional 55 percent tariff on top of existing tariffs.​

Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay noted that while the quota was unwelcome, it is larger than New Zealand's beef exports to China over the past two years, which averaged around 150,000 tonnes annually, meaning New Zealand exports are unlikely to face restraint under these arrangements. This positions New Zealand more favorably than some competitors who may struggle to operate within their allocated limits.​

The total global import quota for 2026 is set at 2.688 million metric tons, rising incrementally to 2.742 million tonnes in 2027 and 2.797 million tonnes in 2028. Brazil's beef industry has expressed concern about the measures, particularly as 53 percent of Brazil's beef exports went to China in 2025, bringing in $8.8 billion in revenue. Australian industry representatives have similarly warned about the impact on their exports.​

New Zealand's allocation of approximately 8 percent of China's combined beef quotas reflects strong bilateral engagement throughout the safeguard investigation process. China remains New Zealand's second-largest beef market after the United States, with 19 percent of New Zealand's beef exports by value—approximately $961 million in the 12 months to November 2025—going to China.​

Minister McClay emphasized that New Zealand beef exporters can have confidence in the Chinese market, where demand for high-quality, safe food products continues to grow, and the government will continue working with China to ensure smooth implementation and explore opportunities to expand trade.