A Glass half full? New Zealand’s evolving beverage story in China

Submitted by Damon Paling, Independent Director of Grin Natural and NZCTA executive committee member.

New Zealand's food and beverage trade with China tends to be measured in billions. Dairy alone exceeded NZ$10 billion in FY2026, with meat and horticulture adding billions more.  Then there are beverages.  At around NZ$130 million, beverages remain a relatively small part of New Zealand's China export basket. But the latest numbers contain a surprisingly interesting story.

In the year to 30 June 2026, beverage exports to China grew 17%, making China New Zealand's fifth-largest beverage export destination and accounting for around 5% of our global beverage exports. Scratch beneath that headline and four very different stories emerge. Wine is accelerating after years of relatively modest growth. Water may finally be demonstrating the value of investment made a decade ago. Juice is small but growing rapidly, with an excellent New Zealand success story behind it. And beer? Well, beer is keeping everyone humble.

Has China finally acquired a taste for Sauvignon Blanc?

Historically, China has been overwhelmingly a red-wine market. Red carries auspicious associations with prosperity, celebration and good fortune, while imported red wine became closely associated with gifting, banqueting and status. Bordeaux, in particular, helped shape China's early imported-wine culture.

Against that background, the recent New Zealand numbers are intriguing. New Zealand exports around NZ$2.1 billion of wine globally, dominated by established markets such as the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. China remains comparatively small at NZ$70 million — but its trajectory has suddenly become much more interesting.

Between FY2017 and FY2024, New Zealand wine exports to China edged from NZ$32 million to NZ$38 million. There were good years, bad years and the disruption of COVID, but essentially eight years of modest progress. Then something changed. Exports jumped to NZ$56 million in FY2025 and NZ$70 million in FY2026, with value increasing another 24% in the latest year.

So, after years of trying, have Chinese consumers finally fallen in love with Sauvignon Blanc?

Perhaps — but it is worth keeping the cork in the bottle for another moment. Export volumes increased a much larger 56% in FY2026, while average unit value seemingly declined 20%. Greater penetration is encouraging; sustaining premium value as volumes build will be the more important test.

What may be changing underneath the numbers is the Chinese wine occasion itself. Wine consumption may becoming more consumer-led and less dependent on the traditional gifting and banquet occasions that favoured red. White wine is gaining ground, particularly among younger urban consumers attracted to fresher, lighter and more informal drinking occasions. Recent industry reporting suggests white wine now represents around 88% of New Zealand wine exports to China, with Sauvignon Blanc at the centre of that proposition. 

Perhaps the question is whether China's changing wine culture is creating a much better fit for what New Zealand does best?  New Zealand enters this next phase with considerably stronger foundations than a decade ago. Leading brands including Babich, Cloudy Bay, Oyster Bay and Villa Maria have spent years developing the market, alongside sustained category-building by New Zealand Winegrowers. Tastings, trade education, distribution development and repeated consumer exposure rarely produce overnight results. China rarely rewards an impatient exporter. Wine may be one of those cases where years of patient market development are finally beginning to show up in the numbers.

Perhaps those water bottling plants weren't such a crazy idea after all

Water tells a rather different story. During the 2010s, New Zealand saw considerable investment and optimism around exporting bottled water to China and other Asian markets. New bottling facilities and capacity emerged around water sources including the Heretaunga Plains in Hawke's Bay and Otakiri in the Bay of Plenty, often accompanied by ambitious plans for China.

At the time, the proposition attracted its share of scepticism. Shipping bottles containing something that falls reasonably regularly from the New Zealand sky halfway around the world requires a fairly compelling value proposition. A decade later, the numbers deserve another look.  Water exports to China have risen from NZ$14 million in FY2017 to NZ$49 million in FY2026. More strikingly, they were only NZ$23 million in FY2024 before reaching NZ$46 million in FY2025. FY2026 provides another interesting signal: volume fell 15%, yet unit value increased 25%, allowing total export value to grow another 6%.

For a country located a long way from its customer, that movement towards value rather than volume matters. New Zealand is unlikely to win by competing with domestic Chinese water simply on hydration. The opportunity lies further up the value curve — provenance, purity, wellness, premium occasions and credible environmental positioning, supported by efficient and increasingly sustainable production and packaging.  Perhaps some of the production capability established during the last decade is now beginning to reach scale.

Small numbers can tell good stories

Juice represents just NZ$9 million of exports to China, but it was the fastest-growing of the major beverage categories in FY2026.  Export value increased 45%, supported by 38% volume growth and a further 5% increase in unit value.

This is also where the statistics meet a particularly good NZ–China business story. Apollo Foods has developed its Apple Press proposition in China, including ranging through Sam’s Club. The business was also recognised at the 2026 NZCTA China Business Awards, winning the NZTE Award for Trade between New Zealand and China – Small & Emerging Business.  It is a useful illustration of value-added horticulture. Rather than simply exporting New Zealand apples, processing and branding can capture more of the value chain while creating a differentiated proposition for the Chinese consumer.

It also reinforces an old China lesson: distribution breadth is not always the objective. A differentiated product matched with a powerful retailer; the right consumer segment and sufficient execution capability can be far more valuable.  Sometimes one very good door is worth 100 mediocre ones.

And then there is beer...

Beer brings the beverage story back to earth. New Zealand beer exports to China were approximately NZ$3 million in FY2026, down 8%. Volumes fell 28%, although average unit value increased 29%.

The challenge is reasonably obvious. China has enormous domestic brewing capacity, formidable international brands, sophisticated local brewers and a rapidly developing craft-beer scene. New Zealand beer then needs to absorb international freight, warehousing, distribution and marketing costs before reaching the consumer.

Cost-to-serve can sober up an export strategy remarkably quickly.  That does not mean there is no opportunity. New Zealand's distinctive hops, craft credentials, limited releases and provenance could support premium niches in selected food-service, specialty retail and online channels. But beer probably illustrates the importance of working backwards from the Chinese consumer rather than forwards from the New Zealand brewery. The question is not whether New Zealand makes excellent beer. It plainly does. The question is why a consumer in Shanghai, Shenzhen or Chengdu should pay a premium for it.

Four beverage categories, four different China strategies

Taken together, there isn't really a single New Zealand "beverage strategy" for China. Wine is increasingly a story of patient category development and consumer discovery. Water is testing whether premium provenance and production capability can overcome the economics of distance. Juice demonstrates the potential of value-added horticulture combined with the right retailer and consumer occasion. Beer reminds us that making an excellent product at home does not automatically create a competitive advantage in China.

The global context also matters. China currently accounts for only around 5% of New Zealand's total beverage exports.  There is therefore considerable runway — but probably not for everything.  As Anna May Isbey, Executive Director of NZCTA, puts it:

“What makes the beverage numbers interesting is not simply the growth, but the different routes companies are taking to achieve it. China continues to reward businesses that stay close to consumers and their in-market partners, understand where the New Zealand proposition genuinely adds value, and are prepared to adapt product, channel and positioning accordingly.”

Perhaps that is the emerging New Zealand beverage playbook: don't sell China a drink simply because we make a good one. Find the consumer, occasion and channel where being from New Zealand makes it more valuable.  And if Chinese consumers really are finally falling for Sauvignon Blanc after all these years, New Zealand's winemakers can probably be forgiven for raising a glass.