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World Bank Raises Growth Expectation for East Asia

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World Bank Raises Growth Expectations for East Asia

Apr. 7 – The World Bank has sharply raised its forecast for economic growth in East Asia, the bank said in a semi-annual economic update published on Wednesday.

The World Bank had previously projected 7.8 percent growth for the region in November, but has now upgraded this to an expected growth rate of 8.7 percent. Furthermore, if China is stripped out of the figures, East Asian growth will grow to 5.5 percent in 2010 from 1.3 percent in 2009, the Washington-based lender said.

“Growth figures for China are coming under increased scrutiny as suspicions of political massaging of them for Chinese media consumption and a lack of transparency when providing them are leading to many analysts questioning their authenticity,” said Chris Devonshire-Ellis, founding partner of Dezan Shira & Associates and  2point6billion.com publisher. “When looking at the region as a whole, it is wise to consider the data both with and without Chinese input to obtain a more balanced view of growth.”

Vikram Nehru, World Bank chief economist for the East Asia Pacific region, said policymakers needed to plan for slower growth in developed countries, tighter global financial conditions, rising concerns about developed countries’ debt levels, and a more difficult environment for global trade.

“In that setting, the developing countries of East Asia will need to carefully manage the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the short term while returning to their structural reform agendas to promote growth in the long term,” Nehru said in a statement.

For China, structural reform means rebalancing the economy, including a larger role for the service sector and private consumption, moving away from investment-heavy export-led growth, and encouraging environmental sustainability. For middle-income countries, such as Indonesia and Thailand, the emphasis should be on investment in human and physical capital. In a slower-growing global economy, pursuing economic integration and engineering a massive shift to green technologies and energy efficiency will be imperative for all countries in the region, the bank said.