News
Asia Economics Flash
April 22, 2009
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Report
- We have raised our real GDP growth forecasts for 2009 and 2010 given that 1) policy stimulus has been more aggressive and 2) the domestic demand response has been stronger and has occurred earlier than we originally forecasted.
- Our new forecasts predict real GDP growth of 8.3% in 2009 (versus 6.0% previously) and more importantly, to reach 10.9% in 2010 (up from 9.0%), significantly above consensus
- We expect above-trend growth in 2010 to be largely driven by stronger investment growth, especially from private investment.
- In addition, we expect policymakers to eventually normalize and shift away from aggressive policy loosening, but only when they are more assured of a stabilization in domestic unemployment and external demand. This would give additional insurance to the growth trajectory we foresee.
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